It’s unlikely that just two Republicans will end up trying to replace President Donald Trump in 2028.

But if those two Republicans are Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, a new survey says Republican voters would prefer the man from Hialeah over the author of “Hillbilly Elegy.”

The survey from Overton Insights shows that in a binary ballot test, Rubio is ahead 42% to 36%.

The crosstabs point to a coalition of sorts backing Rubio.

Rubio, a former Florida House Speaker and U.S. Senator before he was tapped to lead the current administration’s diplomatic efforts, dominates Vance with Republicans under the age of 55.

Rubio’s best showing in terms of age group is among voters between 30 and 44 years old. He takes 54% in the hypothetical, with Vance the choice of just 26% of that chronological cohort.

Better-educated Republicans also rally to Rubio, who leads Vance 68% to 4% among those with post-graduate credentials.

Rubio also dominates Vance with Hispanic voters, taking 70% of the group to Vance’s 15%.

Additionally, Rubio is the overwhelming choice of people with children in the household, taking 78% of that group.

While Rubio leads Vance in a two-way test, a more crowded ballot that includes Gov. Ron DeSantis and other potential candidates goes the VP’s way.

Vance takes 39% in that scenario, with Rubio at 32%, DeSantis at 9%, and a smattering of other names below 5% support.

Interestingly, DeSantis does best with voters 55 and older, taking 12% of the group that is under the age of 65 and 14% of those 65 and over.

Meanwhile, in another national poll from Emerson College, Vance and Rubio are effectively in a dead heat in an expanded field, with the VP at 36% and Rubio at 35%.

DeSantis is an afterthought at 5%.

Emerson sees a shift in the data.

“The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February, when 52% supported Vance and 20% Rubio; the potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.

“Rubio has found support among Republican Primary voters over 50, who support him by a six-point margin over Vance, 41% to 35%, while Vance leads the younger Republican vote under 50, 37% to 26%.”

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