Vietnam’s aviation sector is entering a new growth cycle, fueled by record passenger volumes, multibillion-dollar aircraft orders, and a sweeping expansion of airport infrastructure that is reshaping competition and traffic flows nationwide.

Figures from the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam (CAAV) show that the country’s
aviation sector carried 83.5 million passengers in 2025, up 10.7 per cent year-on-year
and the highest number on record. This growth momentum continued during the 2026
Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday, when the sector carried nearly 2.6 million passengers
and handled 19,200 tons of cargo, representing increases of 15.9 per cent and 43
per cent, respectively, compared to Tet 2025. Domestic transport accounted for more
than 1.1 million passengers and 2,400 tons of cargo, while international transport
reached nearly 1.5 million passengers and 16,900 tons of cargo. The sharp rise in
the international segment indicates a clear structural shift.

“Billion-dollar” lever

Aircraft purchasing contracts signed in early 2025 have become a strategic
lever for the next development phase. Witnessed by Party General Secretary To Lam
during his working visit to the US, Vietnamese airlines signed agreements worth
nearly $32 billion for approximately 96 aircraft.

Vietnam Airlines signed a contract to purchase 50 Boeing 737-8 aircraft valued
at about $8.1 billion, and discussed plans to invest in an additional 30 wide-body
aircraft with an estimated total value exceeding $12 billion to support its international
network expansion strategy.

The new market entrant, Sun PhuQuoc Airways, ordered 40 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner
aircraft worth approximately $22.5 billion.

Meanwhile, Vietjet Air reached a financing agreement to acquire six Boeing
737-8 aircraft valued at about $965 million and signed a contract with Pratt
Whitney to supply engines and maintenance services for 44 A321neo / A321XLR aircraft,
worth approximately $5.4 billion.

According to CAAV Director General Uong Viet Dung, these contracts will drive
growth and fleet restructuring in line with the master plan for developing the airport
system for 2021-2030 with a vision to 2050.

The Authority noted that these orders will rejuvenate fleets, improve operational
efficiency, and secure long-term transport capacity, targeting 275-300 million passengers
annually by 2050. The allocation between narrow-body, wide-body, and mid-range aircraft
is aligned with the planned shift of the operational axis towards Long Thanh, Gia
Binh, and Chu Lai airports.

From a technology and environmental perspective, new-generation aircraft and
engines can reduce fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions by 15-25 per cent compared
to previous generations and cut noise by up to 50 per cent, supporting net-zero
by 2050 commitments under the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)’s
roadmap. Beyond transport, the contracts also open the possibility of developing
an integrated “airport city – logistics – tourism” ecosystem, in which wide-body
aircraft will support international transit, air logistics, and cross-border e-commerce.

However, Mr. Dung emphasized the need for financial risk management given the
tens of billions of dollars involved. Monitoring equity, debt ratios, cash flow,
and guarantee mechanisms will be essential to ensure airlines’ execution capacity.

Regulators assess that these agreements lay three foundations for the next
20-30 years: green and sustainable growth, safety modernization in line with ICAO
standards, and an enhanced national position. The contract signings with Boeing
and Pratt Whitney may represent the second strategic turning point for Vietnam’s
civil aviation, after its period of market liberalization.

Infrastructure expansion

While fleets determine capacity in the air, airport infrastructure defines
limits on the ground. For many years, Vietnam’s aviation growth has been constrained
by capacity at Tan Son Nhat and Noi Bai International Airports in Ho Chi Minh
City and Hanoi. The current wave of infrastructure expansion therefore goes beyond
adding terminals; it represents a structural adjustment of traffic flows and a reorganization
of the nationwide operating network.

The commissioning of Tan Son Nhat’s Terminal 3 and progress on Phase 1 of Long
Thanh International Airport are reshaping the southern operational axis. Once Long
Thanh becomes operational, about 80 per cent of international flights and 10 per
cent of domestic flights are expected to move there. This will not only relieve
congestion at Tan Son Nhat but also redistribute traffic between airports, prompting
adjustments in network strategies and hub potential.

In the north, the completion of Noi Bai’s Terminal 2 expansion will add capacity
for 5 million passengers annually and upgrade the airport to 4F standards. At the
same time, the five-star Gia Binh Airport project is underway, expanding the capital
region’s aviation capacity towards a multi-airport model rather than relying solely
on Noi Bai. Meanwhile, Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) is accelerating expansion
plans for Phu Quoc, Cat Bi, Phu Cat, and Dong Hoi airports to strengthen capacity
in key economic and tourism centers.

As infrastructure capacity expands, competitive dynamics will inevitably shift.
According to Saigon-Hanoi Securities, Vietnam already has an airport network above
the global average relative to population and land area, with accessibility improving
under the approved master plan. With 83.5 million passengers carried in 2025 – a
historic high – demand fundamentals provide room to absorb new capacity.

One notable factor is the increasingly open legal framework for private investment
in aviation infrastructure. Van Don International Airport, developed by the Sun
Group under the build-operate-transfer (BOT) model, exemplifies the trend toward
socialization. Private participation not only adds capital resources but also changes
operational organization towards integrated ecosystems linking airports, airlines,
and tourism services.

Entering 2026, as fleet sizes across the market expand simultaneously, competitive
pressure is expected to intensify. According to MBS, fleet growth is projected at
around 18 per cent; significantly outpacing passenger growth. This will put direct
pressure on domestic market share and force airlines to optimize costs, restructure
networks, and utilize new hubs more efficiently.

Divergence between airline groups is becoming more pronounced. Leading carriers
are focusing on international and regional routes to protect profit margins, while
expanding airlines are seeking advantages in tourism, charter services, and hub-and-spoke
models to optimize operating costs. VNDIRECT has noted that 2026 will highlight
ecosystem-based investment strategies, where advantage lies not only in fleet size
but also in the ability to control the value chain from infrastructure to services.

In this context, competition is no longer a simple race over frequency or fares
but a process of redistributing traffic between airports and airlines. With fleets
expanding and infrastructure being upgraded within a short period of time, the market
is entering a phase of deep adjustment in which scale and efficiency must advance
together. This shift marks a new cycle for Vietnam’s skies – broader in capacity
and fundamentally different in operational structure and competitive dynamics.

VET-Huynh Dung