Florida’s economy has been booming in recent years, but a slowdown is coming, according to the latest economic outlook from Florida TaxWatch.

The forecast runs through 2035 and was produced in partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group. While the third-quarter report from 2025 found Florida’s economy reached $1.85 trillion, making Florida the top state in the nation for economic growth, researchers are now examining whether the momentum in recent years is sustainable over the next nine years.

The report finds that it is sustainable, but at a slower pace.

“Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to $1.85 trillion in Q3 of 2025. Overall, Florida’s economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years,” Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Jeff Kottkamp said.

The report projects Florida’s unemployment rate increasing from 3.9% in 2025 to a peak of 4.4% in 2027, before stabilizing around 4% by 2035. But while unemployment is expected to tick upward in coming years, the number of Floridians employed is projected to increase from 10.1 million in 2025 to 11.5 million in 2035, a level fueled by anticipated population growth.

Florida’s population is expected to increase by about 2.6 million people, from 23.4 million in 2025 to 26 million by 2035. Net migration, like the overall economy, is expected to slow, however. The number of new people moving to Florida, minus those who are moving out of the state, is expected to drop from 922 in 2025 to 689 by 2035. Over the next year, the report anticipates net migration to drop to 895 new residents per day.

The report notes a recent uptick in the number of Floridians leaving the state due to economic reasons, such as high property and auto insurance costs, unaffordable housing and more frequent hurricanes. But it hypothesizes Florida will remain one of the fastest-growing states in the nation as some popular destinations for departing Floridians — such as Georgia and North Carolina — begin facing the same “growing pains.”

The Florida TaxWatch report projects that Florida’s GDP growth rate in 2026 will be 2.7%, but estimates that it will drop to 1.9% by 2035. Those numbers, the report notes, also suggest inflation may slightly decrease in the coming years. Still, inflation is subject to change with fluctuating interest rates.

“This forecast continues to show the growth of Florida, but at a much slower rate than the previous forecasts. This can be, in part, due to economic uncertainty in the nation, as well as a lower level of consumer confidence in the economy. The slight improvements in the short-term outlook of key indicators compared to the Q3 forecast show reasons for optimism when considering Florida’s economy,” Kottkamp said.

Tourism, meanwhile, is also on the decline, though is projected to remain strong. Nearly 143 million tourists visited Florida in 2024, a record. That year also set a record for tourism spending, at nearly $135 billion. But researchers estimate tourism growth will slow to 0.5% this year, before ticking back up in 2027 and stabilizing.

The state released tourism numbers for 2025 last month, indicating domestic visitors grew 0.3% and overseas tourists were up 4%, with an overall increase in tourism of 0.2% compared to 2024. But that modest growth came despite a 14.7% drop in Canadian visitors, as some Canadians avoided U.S. travel in protest over President Donald Trump’s tariffs and comments that Canada should become part of the U.S.

Still, Florida broadly is expected to keep pace with the U.S. economy. Florida’s real GDP is expected to slightly outpace the national average through 2030.

“The biggest question to be answered is whether Florida’s impressive economic growth is sustainable over the next several years, which is why Florida TaxWatch continues to aggressively monitor these numbers and provide each quarter this invaluable economic forecast,” Kottkamp added.

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