During the first and second quarters of 2026, the city can capitalize on lower tariffs from the United States to bolster manufacturing and export activities, further driving economic expansion.

The Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies
(HIDS) has developed three economic growth scenarios for the southern city for the second quarter of
2026, aiming for an annual growth target of approximately 10%, despite ongoing
geopolitical tensions and global energy price fluctuations.

Speaking at a workshop on March 13 titled “Solutions
to drive double-digit growth from traditional and new drivers amidst energy stability
in Ho Chi Minh City,” Deputy Director of HIDS, Mr. Pham Binh An, stated
that the city is well-positioned to maintain its growth momentum. This outlook
is supported by positive economic performance in the first two months of 2026
and the city government’s decisive leadership.

Notably, during the first and second quarters of 2026,
the city can capitalize on lower tariffs from the United States to bolster
manufacturing and export activities, further driving economic expansion.

However, Mr. An emphasized that alongside these
favorable factors, the city must proactively prepare for adverse impacts
stemming from oil price volatility and global geopolitical developments. To
this end, HIDS has proposed three specific scenarios based on the geopolitical
climate:

The baseline scenario (assumes prolonged and
escalating conflict): Forecasts Q1 2026 GRDP growth between 7.08% and
7.98% (point forecast of 7.53%). To meet annual targets, Q2 growth would need
to reach between 12.62% and 13.52% (point forecast of 13.07%).

The transition scenario (assumes short-term conflict): Forecasts
Q1 2026 GRDP growth between 8.08% and 9.04% (point forecast of 8.56%). Q2
growth would need to reach between 11.59% and 12.49% (point forecast of
12.04%).

The target scenario (assumes a rapid cooling of
tensions): Forecasts Q1 2026 GRDP growth between 9.19% and 10.28% (point
forecast of 9.74%). Q2 growth would need to reach between 10.41% and 11.31%
(point forecast of 10.86%).

To support the city’s economic growth targets, Mr. An
proposed six key groups of solutions:

First, accelerate public investment disbursement
starting in the first quarter. Efforts should focus on transport
infrastructure, logistics, and key national and local projects. Simultaneously,
the city needs to resolve bottlenecks in procedures, land acquisition, and site
clearance.

Second, boost industrial production and exports. The
city should support businesses in ramping up production during Q1 to capitalize
on the temporary 15% U.S. tariff rate (before potential changes occur after 150
days). Additionally, HCMC must diversify its export markets—targeting the EU,
Japan, and South Korea through agreements such as the CPTPP, EVFTA, and
RCEP—while maintaining its stronghold in the US market.

Third, stimulate domestic demand and service sector
development. This can be achieved through stimulus programs, large-scale
shopping events, and festivals.

Fourth, attract high-quality Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) and private investment. Focus should be placed on attracting projects in
high-tech, artificial intelligence (AI), and the digital economy from the US,
South Korea, and Japan.

Fifth, promote the digital economy and innovation. This
involves accelerating the application of Big Data, AI, and digital
transformation across production, services, and state management.

Sixth, maintain economic stability and manage risks. This
includes implementing measures to control the price index, stabilizing fuel
supplies, and increasing strategic reserves.

Vneconomy-Thanh Thủy