New population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau show GOP-controlled states on track for gains in House seats after the 2030 census. Meanwhile, some Democratic states could see a net loss.

But Democratic groups say that shouldn’t give a greenlight to further GOP gerrymandering in Florida.

“It’s no coincidence that Republicans have enacted mid-decade gerrymanders in states like Texas and North Carolina by drawing maps that aim to further silence the very communities driving the most population growth — and they are considering doing the same in Florida,” said John Bisognano, President of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.

“That’s because Republicans are seeing these trends, too, and they are terrified of the voters. This dynamic underscores the need for Democratic states to act with urgency to ensure we can ultimately protect a representative democracy.”

The population projections notably showed a net reduction in U.S. population in 2025, largely because of a dramatic decline in humanitarian immigration into the country. The foreign-born population nationwide dropped by 1.5 million between January and June.

But as it relates to distribution of population by state, the projections signal consequences for the next reapportionment process. That includes Florida netting two congressional seats based on how the population across the U.S. is currently dispersed.

Of note, that bolsters an argument made throughout much of 2025 by Gov. Ron DeSantis that Florida actually was shorted House seats after the 2020 national census. He lobbied President Donald Trump to review and reallocate House seats.

“I would love for them to redo the census for ’26. My Legislature will redistrict those lines, we’ll get it to where it’s fair,” he said last year. “But as it’s right now, this country is not fairly apportioned.”

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier likewise argued the federal government could “correct” admitted errors in the reapportionment of seats during the last redistricting cycle in 2022.

While that’s unlikely to happen before the 2026 Midterms, DeSantis has already called an April Special Session to redraw Florida’s current congressional lines.

But the National Democratic Redistricting Committee said state breakdowns should not be the only thing determining how lines are ever drawn. While Florida’s Legislature has GOP majorities, the Democratic group noted that population growth has occurred largely in cities and within urban, left-leaning communities. It would be wrong to intentionally crack those communities in maps designed to diminish voting power.

“The latest round of census data, paired with the fact that most population growth has occurred in diverse, urban and suburban areas while most population decreases have occurred in primarily white, rural areas, continues to support our projections that metropolitan areas in southern and western states will experience significant growth ahead of 2030,” Bisognano said.

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