Pundits the world over are pointing to a new cold war – the defending champion United States versus a rising China. Deglobalisation and great power rivalry dominate headlines while world leaders prepare for chaos.
Fortunately, a different picture emerges when we look at the data. A century of globalised trade has levelled the economic playing field. Countries are now closer in relative strength, far more interdependent and far less willing to pick sides. The “great powers” of the 21st century…