Florida’s a red state that’s getting redder, and a blue wave looks unlikely six months out from Election Day according to new polling from the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

The survey, conducted May 1-9 by Cherry Communications, found U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democrat Alex Vindman by eight points, 48%-40%, in a prospective head-to-head and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds topping former U.S. Rep. David Jolly by the same margin.

Donalds’ lead grows by a hair when put up against the other top contender for the Democratic nomination, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings.

The statewide races were in line with the generic ballot test, which shows Republicans holding a 49%-42% advantage over Democrats among likely Florida voters.

Another bright spot for Republicans: term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis also remains above water at 54% approval — the exact approval rating he earned from the same pollster in mid-May last year.

The topline numbers jibe with Florida Republicans’ dominant lead in voter registrations. The party ended 2025 with about 1.5 million more registered voters than Democrats, and while the lead hasn’t grown, it is holding firm, with 5.5 million Republicans on the voter rolls to 4 million Democrats. Another 3.8 million Florida voters are registered with neither major party.

Meanwhile, about one in six voters flagged the economy and cost of living as their top concern heading into November, with other financial concerns — property taxes and insurance — both landing in the double digits. Immigration and education sat at 8% apiece.

Separately, the Chamber tested voter support for businesses that prioritize the mental health and wellbeing of their employees, which was a focal point during the first day of the Florida Chamber Leadership Conference on Safety, Health + Sustainability.

About three-quarters of those polled (74%) said they would be more likely to want to work for or purchase from companies they knew invested in mental health and wellness. Just 6% disagreed.

“Florida Chamber member businesses are known for putting the long term over the short term and they know that focusing on making Florida the national leader in behavioral health and overall wellness is good for Florida’s future and great for Floridians,” said Florida Chamber President and CEO Mark Wilson.

“That important work continues this week as Florida’s private sector leaders gather in Orlando for the Florida Chamber’s Leadership Conference on Safety, Health & Sustainability to unify around strategies to advance the goals of the nation’s first business-led mental health report launched two years ago here alongside Michael Phelps, national mental health experts and Florida business leaders.”

The Cherry Communications poll has a sample size of 604 likely voters and a margin of error of +/- 4%.

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